2009-2010 Winter Outlook
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Many of you have asked about this winter. I've done the research from looking at the past years to looking at many maps, looking the expert's predictions, and other mountains of information. It is an educated guess at best. At worst, it is just a wild guess. Based on the precipitation trend and the temperature trend, I expect we, in Middle Tennessee are in for a colder than normal winter and a wetter than normal winter.
This information will make many of you jump for joy. Let's look at some information below. Most 3-month outlooks being released right now point toward below average winter temperatures for the entire Southeastern United States. While the first couple of weeks of December look normal, the rest of winter looks quite cold. Secondly, the Climate Prediction Center predicts winter precipitation will be below normal. This doesn't jive with the last 12-month trend where we've been wetter than ever (since records have been kept going back to 1914).
Let's look at some maps. The first set is courtesy of the web site, SNOW DAY.
The second set is courtesy of the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. They came out with their Winter Outlook and it can be viewed by going here.
I've given you my thoughts. What are yours?
I agree that temps will be below normal. According to mountaincityweathercenter.com high pressure will be present over Canada through much of the winter, pushing cold air south making temps below average.
However, this high pressure will keep temps down, but it will also block some low pressure, precipitation producing sytems. Which may be why CPC is predicting below normal precip.
As always in Middle TN, the timing will have to be just right on the arrival of a cold air mass and moisture before we can get a significant snow.
Just my very "uneducated" opinion.
Caleb
Thank you for the hard work and courage in posting your prediction. I have lived in Nashville the past 35 years and attended the great college of TTU in Cookeville, great school by the way, and noticed that the past recent winters have been mild and rainy or cold and dry. I believe this year will be wet and cold. So I agree with you but I beleive that Cumberland Plateau/East Tennessee will have vast more snow than Middle TN. Ice maybe? Thanks again