Tuesday, October 12, 2010

2010-2011 Winter Outlook

Are you wondering what our upcoming winter will be like?

Do you remember the very cold winter of 2009-2010 when temperatures in January failed to reach freezing (32°) in 10 out of the first 12 days?

Check out the following outlook and leave me a comment!

2010-2011 Winter Weather Outlook for Middle Tennessee! 

The expectation of another cold winter would excite many across the Middle Tennessee area. As of right now, our weather is being affected by La NinĂ£. Many, who do this for a living, don't believe it will affect us all winter. La NinĂ£ winters have a history of giving us more snow than average. If you're a weather nut and desire to see a discussion about this subject, click here!

First map is from the Farmer's Almanac 
(not to be confused with Old Farmer's Almanac)
As you can see from the above map, winter weather fans will be 'VERY EXCITED' to see a cold winter with average wintry precipitation. A typical winter yield about 8" of snow in Cookeville, Nashville and Lebanon, and 12" on the plateau in Monterey and Crossville.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has the following paragraph about this winter. "Winter will be colder than normal, with precipitation below normal in the north and above normal in the south. Most days in January will be cold, with other cold periods in early to mid-February. Snowfall will generally be above normal, with the snowiest periods in mid- and late January and mid-February."



Finally, I have a couple of maps that are courtesy of our friends with NOAA's National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center. It portends a winter of possible above average temperatures and a possibility of above average precipitation. It certainly disagrees with both of 'almanacs'.




So, what is going to happen? I would encourage you to stay tuned and keep coming back to the Cookeville Weather Guy web site for the latest on the 2010-2011 winter. I can promise a couple of things. 1) We'll see some snow. 2) We will see some cold weather. 3) We will have a couple of potential storms that will disappoint us. After all, it is Middle Tennessee. What are you thoughts? Share them in the 'great comments' section.

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6 comments:

weather said...

Here is the weather forecast from GFS

theweatherland

Ruth said...

Thank you for this info Weather Guy! I've had one person tell me that if you look at the wooly worms, the darker they are, the harder our winter will be. So of course, the lighter they are the more mild our winters will be.

I've had another person tell me to watch the squirels...if they build their nests higher in the trees, we'll have a milder winter, and if they build them in the middle of the tree we're in for a very cold one.

How's that for scientific? I love reading your forcasts and seeing the weather photos...thank you for sharing your knowledge with the Upper Cumberland and beyond!

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Thanks for the kind comment Ruth. I've heard both the squirrels and the woolly worms 'old wives tales'..there is probably some truth to it!

Cool site weather...I played around on it and found my neighborhood. Thanks for sharing.

Anonymous said...

NOAA's never been all that accurate to begin with. XD A prime example is their major bust on their prediction of last winter (Basically went with a typical el nino setup). Meanwhile, the Almanacs' have been keeping true to their 80-85 percent accuracy, and it's looking like it'll happen again. :)

Anonymous said...

I WANTED TO ASK IF THE SOUTH IS GOING TO SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW LIKE THE STROM WE HAD IN ATLANTA WERE IT SNOWD 8 INCHS TWO WEEKS AGO IN ATLANTA AND IS IT GOING TO SNOW AGAIN? THIS YEAR AND WHAT DO WE NEED TO WATCH FOR.

Anonymous said...

I LOVE SNOW! It's sad to me when we have mild winters. So I'm jealous when the North gets a foot of snow. I just think it's the most beautiful and peaceful thing in all of God's creation.

Does anyone remember that monstrous snow Cookeville had around 1993? My husband & I, just newly married lived in an apartment off Willow Ave. And the snow drifts were so high we could not see our front steps, which at the top were at least 4 ft high! What fun!

AMS

AMS
Member-American Meteorological Society