Bad News For Tennessee Snow Lovers

TWO NICE DAYS:

A beautiful, warm day across much of Tennessee as we'll see highs around 60° this afternoon. Chilly overnight with a low of 37°, but we rebound on Friday, high of 63°. The weekend will be filled with rain showers and a bit cooler with highs in the 50's and lows in the 40's. 

FEBRUARY OUTLOOK:

The next two maps are the chances of precipitation and temperatures for the month. In the first one, we see that Tennessee is projected to have above normal precipitation. In the second one, we are expected to be above normal in temperature. This is NOT GOOD if you love snow. We may have a cold spell or two, but it won't last long and trying to time the cold air with the precipitation may not happen. 

*Latest Local Forecast*

Storms Rumbling Through Cookeville

NWS radar image from Nashville, TN

Rainy Day and Night

RAIN COAT AND/OR UMBRELLA:
Expect showers and an outside chance of a thunderstorm today (Wednesday) with a high of near 60° in Cookeville, TN. Chance of rain is 70%. Tonight, showers continue with slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most of the rain will occur before midnight and we'll see a low of 47° by morning. Rain chances tonight is 60%.

THURSDAY - SUNDAY:
Thursday: Sunshine: 61° ...low 38°
Friday: Sunshine: 63° ...low 48° with showers that night
Saturday: Showers/T-storm: 60° ...low 47° with showers
Sunday: Showers possible: 55° .....low 37° with showers

*Latest Local Forecast*

JANUARY ALMANAC:
January 2011 was a wet and warm month with a shade under 5.5" of rainfall (normal is around 5") and an average daily high of 52.1°, which is 5.7° above normal but still well below the record year in 1937 when the average high was 59.2°. Our warmest day was 65.7° on January 25th while the coldest low was 14.1° recorded on January 3rd. We had 12 days in which the high exceeded 60° and 6 out of 7 of those days occurred from January 20th through January 26th, which is usually considered the coldest week of the year historically.

What does all this mean? Not much...as I've been reminded by climate scientists, 'weather isn't climate'....

I-40 rockslide closes interstate on TN-NC border

Both westbound lanes of Interstate 40 (America's east/west interstate) are closed near the 450/451 mile marker at the North Carolina/Tennessee border. Some of the rocks, according to media reports, are the size of homes. Tennessee Department of Transportation officials say the clean-up will takes 'weeks', not days nor months as was first reported.

FYI, the detour route is some 53 miles...

WBIR-Knoxville report

WBIR story of long history of I-40 rockslides

Warming Up

NICE AND SUNNY:
If you like warmer weather in the winter, you'll love the next couple of days. I expect plenty of sunshine and temperatures to be 60° today (Monday) across the Highlands of Tennessee. On Tuesday, expect even warmer temperatures with highs near 65° in Cookeville coupled with increasing clouds along with gusty southerly winds.

CHANGES TO THE BLOG:
Your eyes are not deceiving you...I do have some changes to the blog in terms of color, font, and small change to the layout. We'll have more changes in the coming days.


RAIN RETURNING:
Rain shows up on Tuesday night and will hang around all the way through the early weekend as a pattern change will affect our weather.

ARCTIC AIR TO MAKE IT'S RETURN:
In Saturday's post we discussed the very cold air in Alaska and this will eventually filter it's way down to the mainland of the United States and affect our weather.  We do think temperatures will go back to more seasonal highs for winter as we get to the weekend with the possibility of a return to winter-type conditions. That, however, is a quite a distance out and things do change in Tennessee quickly.

*Latest Local Forecast*

SPOTTER TRAINING CLASS:
Next Saturday, February 4th is the 2012 SkyWarn Spotter Training Class in Cookeville. It will be held at the TTU College of Nursing Auditorium located at 10 W. 7th Street in Cookeville. The class is free and expected to last around 2 hours. Both the beginner and intermediate classes will be taught so if you've never been through training or if you've not attended in a couple of year, I encourage you to go!

Nice, Sunny Saturday

A very nice and seasonal Saturday with plenty of sunshine and a high in the upper 40's. Typically this time of year, we see highs of 47° and lows of 26°. Tonight's low will be right around 26° but sunrise on Sunday morning. I expect we'll be a few degrees warmer on Sunday with a good chance of creeping up into the lower 50's after a cold start. Add another 5-7° for Monday and Tuesday with sunny skies and things are looking up! Rain is expected back on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

COMPARED TO LAST YEAR:
Does this winter seem a lot different than last year? Well, if you answered with a resounding 'YES', then you are correct. Through today, our average high January has been 51.7° while last winter it was just 40.5°. We saw 6.7" during January 2011 while this year we've seen but a trace! The record warm January dates back to 1937 when we averaged 59.6°. JANUARY HISTORY LINK from MY WEATHER STATION LIVE

BITTER COLD IN ALASKA:
Seeing some incredibly cold temperatures coming out of Alaska. A report this morning around 8:30 am showed a temp of -51.7°.

BLOG COMMENTS:
Thank you to so many of you who've either commented on weather posts here, my Facebook page, or to me in person. Your kindness doesn't go unnoticed and I appreciate each one of them!

*Latest Local Forecast*

Rain, Rain, and Even More Rain

A potent rainmaker is making it's way through middle Tennessee today. January has already been a wet month in Cookeville with more than 4.5" already recorded. This system will give us another 1"-2" with some locations receiving up to 3". There is the threat of flooding as the ground is saturated from recent rains.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST:
Today: RAIN showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High 61°, rain chances 100%
Tonight: RAIN showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low 40°, rain chances 100%

*Latest Local Forecast*

*Nashville Radar*

*SE U.S. Radar*

LONG-TERM FORECAST:
The general outlook for the end of this week, the weekend, and next week is for temperatures to be near normal this time of year on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (high 40's/upper 20's to mid 30's) with a warm-up for Monday and Tuesday and rain returns Wednesday. Not looking very promising for snow at this point!

Father Recounts Teen Daughter's Death in Tornado

This story is from the Birmingham News.

Early Monday morning a 16-year-old Clay, Alabama girl was found dead just 40 feet from her home. Christina Heichelbech was one of two people killed by a tornado that touched down near Birmingham. Her father said the family didn't hear the warning siren. ...REST OF THIS STORY HERE

My heart hurts for this family. As a dad of a 17-year-old daughter, this story hits so very close to home.

Folks, please understand that outdoor tornado sirens are mostly not useful due to our homes being well insulated and the fact the tornado siren was invented in a time where air conditioning did not exist. The tornado siren evolved out of the civil defense siren dating back to World War 2. During the 50's, the siren was used for situations such as a possible nuclear attack and then evolved into the present-day use of a tornado siren. While they are effective for people who are outside, they do not serve to alert us indoors or while we are sleeping.

So, what do we do during potentially severe weather? I encourage you to spend a minimum of $30 and get a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio. I will post some links below to help you purchase this life-saving device.

*AmbientWeather.com Weather Radio Reviews* 

*For $46, the Midland WR-300 is a great product*

*Here is the $30 Midland Weather Radio*

I use a Midland-WR100, which is also a $30 product. 

It will wake you up, guaranteed!

*Latest Local Forecast*

Vigilance Advised Overnight

Ominous wording from the National Weather Service.....

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

Prepare For Severe Weather

Those of you who read this weather blog with any regularity know that I don't write to scare and gather hits through 'Weather Entertainment'.....I try to give the information in a concise, easy-to-read and understand way that isn't filled with technical garbage.

Knowing this, please understand the next several paragraphs made have wording that has an alarming sound to it. My goal is keep you informed and let you make decisions that work best for your loved ones.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE:
The ingredients for a severe weather outbreak are coming together. Much of Tennessee could be affected by significant weather events such as strong, damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. Much of this activity will occur after midnight and due to the majority of people being asleep, this makes the pending severe weather all the more dangerous as well as life threatening.

The National Weather Service is advising people to review their safety plans. Ask yourself - "Where is my safe shelter in my home?" - "How will I receive a warning if one is issued?" -

A weather radio is an invaluable tool during potential severe weather. They are fairly inexpensive and can be purchased through major retailers. A weather radio transmits an alarm that will wake you in the event of a tornado warning. I highly recommend them.

TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK:
The National Weather Service expects the worst of the severe weather to occur, as I said, in the overnight hours. Below is a graphic showing their prediction of the arrival of the worst.

Winds will kick up overnight and gusts to 40+ mph will be common. Make sure your garbage cans and lawn furniture is secure. Watch for falling branches if you are out traveling and make sure to keep a safe distance as you are nearing high-profile vehicles as they tend to more affected by high winds.

*Latest Local Forecast*

*Wind Advisory*

*Special Weather Statement*

*NWS-Nashville Page*

*Cookeville-Putnam County EMA Facebook Page*