Tonight, it must be noted that all the ingredients are in place for a long-lasting severe weather event for Wednesday. As I've pored over the information available, it is becoming increasingly clear the potential for severe weather is possible and probable for quite a few folks in middle Tennessee.
This is not the sounding of an alarm, but making sure that those of you who choose to read this blog are as informed as possible.
Map #1 below shows the probability of tornadic activity. It is called a Tornado Index. Anything OVER a 2 is considered serious. Most of middle Tennessee is under a 3 up to a 7 or 8 as you get around the Nashville area. These numbers portend a serious weather situation for Wednesday. Arrival times are a bit sketchy to pin down, but you'd be safe to bet that anytime from in the morning on through Wednesday afternoon into the evening will be the best times for serious weather.
Map #2 shows the chances of severe weather happening with 25 miles of a point. So, this map is telling us that we have a 45% chance (nearly a 1 in 2 chance) of SEVERE weather occurring within 25 miles of your location. For middle Tennessee, we don't typically see this type of situation. I would be WEATHER ALERT all day tomorrow. It is not the time to have your TV on stations that don't update your local weather. Stay tuned (in middle TN) to stations like 2, 4, 5, and 17. They will provide coverage and keep us updated during storm events. Additionally, the NWS-Nashville (http://www.weather.gov/nashville) is an excellent resource.
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