We are definitely under the gun for strong storms for our Thursday afternoon. The atmosphere will become more unstable and daytime heating will only add to the equation.
The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has most of Tennessee west of Nashville under a moderate risk of Severe Storms and the rest of Tennessee under a slight threat. We believe that will move eastward as the storm progresses.
Watch for several things tomorrow to determine whether or not we see Severe Weather.
1) Daytime heating of the atmosphere...with breaks in the clouds, the sun will heat and therefore, destabilize the atmosphere which causes a great probability of severe weather.
2) Dewpoint readings...as they increase, so do the chances.
3) Daytime temperatures...the higher, of course, the greater chances..
Again, it's all about instability.
I would encourage anyone in our general area to keep an eye to the EXPERTS (meteorologists at your LOCAL TV stations)......
A copy of a Hazardous Weather Statement is attached:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE..
DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO EXTREME WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY DAWN. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE..
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAYAS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EASTWARD...IT WILL PUSH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE COMBINATION OFATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE..
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO RESPOND QUICKLY WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA.