Saturday, December 29, 2007

New Year's Snow?


I've been patroling the different sites watching how the professionals are viewing the latest information from the computer forecasting models. Here are some discussion threads from the National Weather Service in Louisville, KY and Nashville, TN.

First from Louisville..
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT (NEW YEARS EVE). THE ISSUE HERE IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE GULF DOES NOT HAVE TIME TO OPEN UP SO MOISTURE WILL BE FROM THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM.THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING QPF FROM 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE, THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, ANDTHE NAM ARE MUCH DRIER WITH QPF AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME HOWEVER IF THE GFS DOES PAN OUT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY 12Z TUESDAY. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE NON-ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS WEDNESDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW, WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR A WHILE.


Now from Nashville:
THEN A MAJOR H5 WAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA MON NGT AND TUE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THU. THIS OPENS THE GATE FOR A MAJOR PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA ON MON NGT AND TUE WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE RIGHT ON TOP OF THE MIDSTATE WED NGT. A TRANSITION FROM LGT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW MON NGT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR TUE AND PART OF WED. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE NortheRN PLATEAU. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

Our latest, local weather forecast here...it appears with the newest forecasting models, they've increased the chances for snow from 20% to 30% during the period, except on Tuesday where it is 40%. Interesting.
As always, the winter weather links are located to the right of this post and offer you an easy way to keep up with all the 'talk' about the weather for our area.

5 comments:

Snowman said...

Mike, Currently, I am thinking possibly 1"-2" for you over on the Plateau. I got a call map out over on my blog. Good Luck.

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Snowman...let's hope you are correct!! :) I'll run over and check out the map on your blog..for the rest of you, Snowman's blog is located at: http://volunteerwx.blogspot.com/

Snowman said...

By the way mike, Thats a gorgeous picture or painting, which ever it is. Just Gorgeous.

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Thanks Snowman...here's to hoping we get something like this in our area! :)

BaxterWX said...

I want SNOW! ... lol

after tommrow anyway - I want to get the station re-mounted first.

AMS

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Member-American Meteorological Society