Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Will It Snow On Christmas?

A lot (and I mean A LOT) of you are asking that question!  

I can give you two answers...a short one and a long one.

First, the short answer....
In a typical year, we have (according to NOAA) a 5-10% chance of snow for Christmas, while the upper plateau area has around a 10-25% chance.  So, for us about 1 time every 10 years.

Secondly, the longer answer....
Studying the computer models that forecast out to next Thursday show cold air settling in on Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming Christmas week.  Since Christmas is on Thursday, we have to go out on a limb (where forecasting is VERY TRICKY).  We do have (according to some forecasting models) the potential for wet weather to be in place during the late week of Christmas.  Now, will it be COLD enough is the BIG, BIG question.  If I were to pinned down today, my answer would be no...BUT, it is Tennessee and things change quickly...so stay tuned...

We've been stuck in a cold pattern all month and don't see us coming out of it (except for a day or two at a time) before the beginning of 2009.   Temperatures for this month are six degrees below normal (so far) and are more than 12 degrees below December of 2007.  We are 17 degrees below normal from 2001, the record warm year.

2 comments:

memwxnet said...

Cookeville has a better chance than Memphis, that's for sure. My "odds of a White Christmas" post for Memphis will be out tomorrow.
--Erik, MemphisWeather.net

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

You are right about that Erik..they aren't many days that you guys are cooler than us...you've had some recently! :)

Great to hear from you.

AMS

AMS
Member-American Meteorological Society