Tuesday, November 3, 2009

2009-2010 Winter Outlook

Many of you have asked about this winter. I've done the research from looking at the past years to looking at many maps, looking the expert's predictions, and other mountains of information. It is an educated guess at best. At worst, it is just a wild guess. Based on the precipitation trend and the temperature trend, I expect we, in Middle Tennessee are in for a colder than normal winter and a wetter than normal winter.

This information will make many of you jump for joy. Let's look at some information below. Most 3-month outlooks being released right now point toward below average winter temperatures for the entire Southeastern United States. While the first couple of weeks of December look normal, the rest of winter looks quite cold. Secondly, the Climate Prediction Center predicts winter precipitation will be below normal. This doesn't jive with the last 12-month trend where we've been wetter than ever (since records have been kept going back to 1914).

Let's look at some maps. The first set is courtesy of the web site, SNOW DAY.

The second set is courtesy of the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. They came out with their Winter Outlook and it can be viewed by going here.

What would I take from these two sets of maps? First, I would note that both agree upon a colder than normal winter in Tennessee. Second, I would be concerned about our wet pattern over the last 12 months. Without a shift in the pattern, we will continue with above average precipitation. That combined with below average temperatures portend a snowy winter.

I've given you my thoughts. What are yours?


Anonymous said...

I agree that temps will be below normal. According to mountaincityweathercenter.com high pressure will be present over Canada through much of the winter, pushing cold air south making temps below average.
However, this high pressure will keep temps down, but it will also block some low pressure, precipitation producing sytems. Which may be why CPC is predicting below normal precip.

As always in Middle TN, the timing will have to be just right on the arrival of a cold air mass and moisture before we can get a significant snow.
Just my very "uneducated" opinion.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the hard work and courage in posting your prediction. I have lived in Nashville the past 35 years and attended the great college of TTU in Cookeville, great school by the way, and noticed that the past recent winters have been mild and rainy or cold and dry. I believe this year will be wet and cold. So I agree with you but I beleive that Cumberland Plateau/East Tennessee will have vast more snow than Middle TN. Ice maybe? Thanks again

Anonymous said...

Before i read your final thought on snow/ice possibilities i was looking at the maps and thinking cold and wet equal icy precip. ALthough the NOAA and Accuweather don't go in that direction it sure makes sense to me. What's funny is just yesterday, Dec 7, 2009, Accuweather predicted snow on the 20th of December for Nashville and a windchill of -2 and today they have for that day a rather uneventful day. I like our odd of putting 2 and 2 together and figuring it will be snow or ice at least some of the winter days. Julie

Anonymous said...

Thank you so much for your weather info as the newspaper online was little better than none. This is the first time I have visited your site. You will be my weather information from now on. Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

We (my wife and I) just recently moved here from FL. We have found you to be more accurate and give more detail for the Cookeville wx than the NWS.
Thanks for keeping us as informed as you can. We appreciate it. I will predict this winter the weather will be colder and we will have more snow than FL.


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