Sunday, January 3, 2010

Thoughts On Cold And Snow

Was just reading some of the latest information from the National Weather Service's forecast discussion and wanted to share it. Here goes:


OTHER THAN THE COLD...OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE THE SNOW MAKER FOR THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
VARIABILITY HANDLING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DETAILS AND EXACTLY HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH ALL SNOW FALLING THROUGH THIS
EVENT. ACCORDINGLY WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY. QPF
TO SNOW CONVERSION FOR THIS COLD SNOW EVENT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FOR MID TN (MAYBE NEAR 15:1). THIS WOULD YIELD 2-4"
SNOWFALL FROM THE 12Z GFS QPF...1-3" FROM THE ECMWF. THE GARCIA
METHOD...AND MODEL SNOW PARAMETERS SHOW 2-4" POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CERTAINLY THIS CAN CHANGE BACK AND FORTH SEVERAL TIMES AS
WE APPROACH THURSDAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BLAST INTO MID TN WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY. MID TN WILL FALL EVEN DEEPER INTO THE
ICE BOX BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SNOW COVER. HIGHS WILL
BARELY REACH THE 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MAY KEEP FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA.

So, if you love snow or if you're a student or a teacher and desire some 'snow days', you may just get your wish!

3 comments:

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

The lowest temps this morning across Middle Tennessee was 7° at both Jamestown and Monterey, while Fall Creek Falls recorded 8°. Look for many more reporting stations to go into the single digits by sunrise on Monday morning.

tncorgi said...

Maybe time to feature the school closings info links again? Those sure were handy last winter.

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Great idea Paul...I will take care of that right now! Thanks for suggesting it.

AMS

AMS
Member-American Meteorological Society