Since it's October 31, I thought the headline would be appropriate. Actually the weather will be quiet over the next few days. Expect a few sprinkles before lunch today with a mostly sunny sky and a high of 61°. Overnight for the trick or treaters, temperatures will drop through the 50's.
By Tuesday morning, we'll see lows in the middle 30's.
For Tuesday, sunshine and a high of 64° and Wednesday, sunshine and a high of 66°. Rain chances ramp up for Thursday.
Winter Outlook Update:
Due to some change in the upcoming winter forecast, I am now posting my 2011-2012 Winter Weather Outlook for the end of October. Winter across Tennessee is generally defined as December 1 through February 28, 2011 even though the official start of winter isn't until around December 20th or so. (For 2011, the official start date for winter is December 22)
The first news comes from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) where they say the following about our upcoming winter....
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: wetter than average with equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding
Next, if you're really into reading all about the whats, wheres, whys, etc...check out our friends at WeatherAdvance.com. Don't get too lost in the NAO, AO, and PNA terminology.
Their 2nd edition winter outlook sure has an interesting scenario for middle Tennessee with colder than normal temperatures and wetter than normal precipitation. This set-up could be quite interesting for us.
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Next up, our friends over at Tennessee Weather or TennesseeWx.com discuss weather 24/7. You'll really enjoy looking at their weather threads and learning from some great professionals who frequent the site. Start with the Winter 2011-2012 post (which began way back on July 7, 2011) and work your way through it. I cheat and start from the last page and work backward.
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Finally, I'll throw my 2 cents in...over the last couple years we've trended cooler than normal and that trend will continue through all of this winter. While we will have periods of warmer than normal temperatures, I believe we will mostly stay near to below normal during the period. I cannot, however, predict the same type of snow accumulations from last winter when the totals were quite impressive.
Let's go with 11" for the winter with 3" total for December, 6" in January, and 2" in February.
What's your thoughts?
ORIGINAL POST from earlier this autumn.....
Winter will soon be upon us and many of you are wondering just what sort of winter we'll have across middle Tennessee. Depending on which part of Putnam County you live in the average is 8"-12" of snow annually. This post will be updated as more information is released from credible sources!
A POPULAR POST:
Each year I post the 'Winter Outlook' and the last two have been my most popular posts on this weather blog. Obviously, I encourage and welcome your comments. Let me know what you think about the upcoming winter of 2011-2012.
THE FARMER'S ALMANAC:
Our first map is from the 'Farmers Almanac' and shows Tennessee to be 'very mild/very wet'. To me, this would indicate a rainy winter with little snow accumulation. The challenge for the Farmers Almanac post and map is they lump in all of Tennessee with the deep south and that is a flawed assumption. As many of you know, weather from Cookeville eastward is completely different than Nashville westward due (mainly) to elevation and the Appalachian mountain chain. We receive 'backside' moisture from low pressure systems that have pushed eastward while much of west Tennessee doesn't.
ACCU-WEATHER'S TAKE:
Map #2 is a rough estimation from the folks with Accu-Weather. It shows a 'near normal' winter or snow forecast for the Cookeville area. They take the Appalachian mountain chain into consideration with their map.
Finally, I decided to include a YouTube.com video from Cirrus Weather. Don't blame me for the music!
And then there is this one that is 'interesting'...love the guy's hairstyle! His name is Piers Corbyn and he is one interesting fellow. His website is called Weather Action.
Don't expect to see a winter outlook from NOAA until about mid-late October. I will update this post as other outlooks are made available. As of now, I don't think we're ready to release a definitive prediction about winter in Cookeville, TN.
Last link is the best planting dates for seeds. I included this since we discussed the winter of 2011-2012 and know some of you wanted to look ahead!
WARMING UP LATER:
Cold this morning across the Highlands of Tennessee. Here in Cookeville, we stand at 38.4° at 8:20 am after a morning low of 35.5°. Expect sunny skies after some morning patchy fog with a high eventually of 55°.
NO BLIZZARD FOR US:
The snow in the northeast is causing quite a mess for some. Our friends over at AccuWeather.com are all over the big story.
SATURDAY NIGHT FREEZE WARNING:
Overnight on Saturday into Sunday we are under a FREEZE WARNING. Expect freezing temperatures by midnight this evening and last until 9 o'clock in the morning on Sunday. We'll rise to the 60's by Sunday afternoon and expect to stay on the warming trend with mid 60's by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Cookeville's Daily Almanac Our morning low: 35.5° Yesterday's high: 47.1° (at midnight) Yesterday's low: 40.6° Last Year: 58.9° and 31.3° Normal High: 67° Normal Low: 40° Records: 84° in 1991 and 23° in 1925
October 2011 temperatures are 1.6° BELOW normal
Rainfall Report 24-hour precip total: .67" monthly precip total: 4.02" annual precip total: 59.65"
2.74" of rain fell on this date in 1979
Did it feel cooler on Thursday as the day went on?
Your mind wasn't playing tricks on you as our high on Thursday was 63°, but that occurred at 5:13 this morning. Temperatures dropped below 60° by 8 am, down through the 50's during the afternoon and into the 40's by 5:00 pm. At 10:25 pm, we stand at 47°.
FRIDAY FORECAST:
Look for increasing rains before dawn and for rain to hold on through much of the day. **SORRY to the Cookin' on the Square attendees** ...Highs will eventually 51° in the afternoon and showers should decrease in intensity as we head toward evening. Chance of Friday rain is 80%.
FRIDAY NIGHT:
Downright chilly for Friday night football games. Expect temperatures to drop rapidly after sunset (through the 40's) with lows by sunrise on Saturday in the lower to middle 30's and we'll see patchy frost.
SATURDAY:
Frost in the early morning hours. Sunshine and warmer, high 56°
SATURDAY NIGHT:
Cold again with frost conditions and a low of 33°
SUNDAY:
Sunshine and warmer after a frosty start with a high on Sunday of 61°.
The rest of your 7-day forecast is below including the Halloween weather outlook (hint: DRY)....
*Latest Local Forecast*
Rain moves in this morning with falling temperatures all day. Expect a rumble of thunder this evening. Friday starts chilly and rainy. Cool weekend ahead with frost chances Saturday and Sunday mornings.
After several very nice days, are you ready for some change again?
Ready or not, here it comes. Enjoy Wednesday as we won't see highs in the mid 70's under sunny skies for the foreseeable future.
Come Wednesday night, we'll see rain showers on the increase with a low by Thursday morning of 53°. Expect rain to last all day Thursday, high of just 60° with rain continuing into Thursday night and a low by Friday morning of 40°. Slight rain chances on Friday, high of just 55°.
The weekend looks decent but cool with sunny skies and highs in the 50's on Saturday and 60's on Sunday!
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ALERT:
Expect a nice run of weather today through Wednesday as highs are expected to warm each day. We start at 43° on this Monday morning and will hit 71° by this afternoon. If you think that's nice, you'll love Tuesday and Wednesday where highs will reach the middle 70's both days under sunny skies!
STORMY LATE WEEK:
Look for storm chances for Wednesday night and Thursday with much cooler temperatures ahead for the end of this week and a cool weekend upcoming. At this point, we don't see any severe weather out of the upcoming system, but I will continue to monitor it for any changes.
We start our Sunday out at 35° at 6:30 am. This is a couple degrees warmer than the low of 32° on Saturday morning. We managed to hit 63° yesterday.
Expect a fast warm-up with temperatures in the 50's by 9 am, 60's by 10:30 and near 70° later this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky.
The work week starts with rising temperatures each day through mid-week. 73° on Monday, 76° on Tuesday, and shower chances possibly return by Wednesday, high 74°.
The late week forecast includes some thunderstorms and a cooler temperatures once again.
I've been studying the 90-day forecast for November, December, and January and we look to have near normal highs with a good chance of above average precipitation. Here is the Climate Prediction Center's 3-month outlook.
We're starting in the low 40's this morning. That's chilly but warmer than most as temperature readings to our west are in the 30's. Expect highs under sunny skies to reach near 60° today. Tonight, areas of frost after 1 am with lows by sunrise of 32° under a clear sky.
Saturday's weather forecast is for a very cold start to the morning with sunny skies all day and a high of 63°. Another cold night overnight Saturday into Sunday morning with frost developing once again and a low of 38°. Sunday's highs under a sunny sky will be 70°.
The annual 'Haunted Half Marathon' takes place this weekend in Cookeville. Also, you'll have two opportunities to ride a passenger train from Cookeville to Algood and back this weekend and next weekend. Tickets are reasonable and you can purchase them by calling the Cookeville Chamber at 931-526-2211.
Newschannel 5's Snow Watch system sent a message out in error stating Putnam County schools are closing today. It was an error...a HUGE error on their part. About a dozen school systems in middle TN were announced as closed.
Expect another chilly day across the Upper Cumberland region with scattered showers this morning and drizzle this afternoon. High temperatures struggle to break 50°. West winds will be sustained around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Rain chances 50%.
Tonight is headlined with a FREEZE WARNING. Temperatures will drop to the lower to mid 30's across much of our area. Areas of frost will develop after 4 am with calm winds.
Friday will be very cold to start but we will be sunny and warm to near 57° by the late afternoon. Another frosty night on Friday night with lows of 34°. Areas of frost once again by Saturday morning and temperatures will rebound to 61° by afternoon. Sunday should be sunny with a high of 64°.
Big temperature drop in middle Tennessee over next several days, but we'll get to that in a moment.
Did you know that today is Tennessee Fall Severe Weather Awareness Day? The secondary peak severe weather season occurs in the fall and winter and historically that has been in November. Because of this, the National Weather Service would like to call attention to this and alert people on this.
Back to the chilly weather. We start this Wednesday morning out in the 40's (44° at post time) and expect highs to struggle to go higher than the 40's this afternoon with cloudy skies and a northwest wind. Tonight, showers probable, low 41° and then chilly again on Thursday with a high of just 51° with winds running 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph making that high temperature feel quite cold.
Expect frost to develop for Friday and Saturday mornings with lows in the mid 30's and highs on both days from 57° to 63°. Sunday will be the nicest day with a high of 66°
The impending rain and thunderstorms will be later than anticipated giving us a nice day across the Upper Cumberland. Expect the shower chances to ramp up this afternoon. Highs will reach near 80° with increasing clouds. Rain chances about 40%.
Tonight, showers and thunderstorms early with showers late, low by sunrise of 47° with a 90% chance of rain. For Wednesday, a slight chance of showers and much cooler with highs of 52° (nearly a 30° drop compared to last few days). Rain chances again Wednesday night with a chilly low of 39°.
Extended outlook is for a chilly, raw day on Thursday with gusty winds and a high of 52°, patchy frost possible Thursday night, low 35°. Friday's high 56° and low of 37°. The weekend ahead appears to be warmer with highs in the 60°.
You'd better enjoy this last warm day today! Monday's highs are expected to be near 80° once again today (we hit 80° on Sunday) under a mostly sunny sky. Overnight tonight, lows will drop to 52° by Tuesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, high 72° with showers and a low of 43° overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning with lingering showers on Wednesday and highs just 52°. Highs only in the 50's the rest of this week with lows in the 30's and I expect we'll see patchy frost by Friday morning. We'll warm some over the weekend with a high of 63° on Saturday and 67° on Sunday.
COOLER:
Some low-lying fog today across the Upper Cumberland. That should burn off rather quick and all of us will see sunny skies and breezy westerly winds. Expect a high around 71° in Cookeville by later this afternoon. We are starting this morning at a cool 50°. Winds will gust to 25 mph later today. Average high for this date is 72 and average low is 44.
BIG RAINS:
Over the last couple of days, we've recorded more than 2" of rainfall here in Cookeville. In fact, we almost had the most rain ever on this date. That record went back to 1914.
WEEKEND AND EXTENDED FORECAST:
The rest of the weekend calls for highs in the upper 60's on Saturday and upper 70's on Sunday under sunny skies. The sunny skies extend into Monday with a high of 79°. Rain chances move in for late Monday night and into Tuesday. By mid-week, temperatures will back off significantly with highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's.
Cookeville's Daily Almanac Our morning low: 49.5° Yesterday's high: 65.0° Yesterday's low: 55.6° Last Year: 76° and 48° Normal High: 72° Normal Low: 44° Records: 88° in 1928 and 27° in 1988
Rainfall Report 24-hour precip total: 1.73" October monthly precip total: 2.00" 2011 annual precip total: 57.63"
1.77" of rain fell on this date in 1914
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM:
Expect rain for most of your Thursday with cooler temperatures due to the cloud cover. High temperature only about 67° this afternoon and an 80% chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Overnight, a 50% chance of rain early then becoming mostly cloudy, low 50° by sunrise on Friday.
WEEKEND FORECAST:
Friday through Sunday is expected to be sunny with warming temperatures each day. Highs in the upper 60's moderating to the middle 70's by Sunday. Lows in the 40's both Saturday and Sunday mornings.
COLD AIR COMING?:
Next week starts out very warm on Monday, but a front comes through bringing our coolest weather yet of the season. Highs by Wednesday only expected to be 60°. Have a great day!
BE CAREFUL:
Much of middle Tennessee is under a Dense Fog Advisory. In some locations visibility is down to just one-quarter of a mile. Use caution when driving this morning and turn on your headlights (low beam, of course). I expect the fog to burn off by 9 o'clock this morning.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
The rest of Wednesday is expected to be partly sunny with a high of 73° and a calm wind. Tonight, rain returns with a low of 57°. Rain chances 50%. On Thursday, rain continues with a possible thunderstorm, high of 68° and rain chances 80%. Thursday night, rain ends and a low of 49°
The Weekend Forecast:
Sunshine Friday - High 67°
Sunshine Saturday - High 70°
Sunshine Sunday - High 76°
OVERALL NICE FORECAST:
Your Columbus Day (Monday) outlook is for a slight chance of showers this morning and a high of 76° this afternoon. Most of the spotty showers are moving south to north and are very scattered. The majority of us will remain dry. We will continue to have a 20-30% chance for rain through Thursday with highs running from 70° to 74°. Lows will mainly be in the 50's.
Sunshine returns just in time for the weekend with highs in the 70's...enjoy your Columbus Day.
SIMPLY AWESOME:
If you've enjoyed the weather since Monday, I've got great news for you this weekend. Sunny skies and clear nights will continue. We'll be warm with temperatures running mainly in the 80's today and Saturday with upper 70's on Sunday. Lows at sunrise will be mainly in the lower 50's.
DRY RUN CONTINUING:
Rain chances will be basically ZERO between today through Monday night with an ever-so-slight chance of rain beginning on Tuesday. We'll nail that forecast down a little later in the weekend. As I've said many times, October is traditionally the driest month of the year for middle Tennessee and the first part of October 2011 is living up to that standard.
FOILAGE REPORT:
If you've been outside at all, you've noticed the change with many of the trees. Check out the TN Vacation site for more on where the best leaf views are across our great state.
Cookeville's Daily Almanac October 7, 2011 - Friday Our morning low: 51.4° Yesterday's high: 84.3° Yesterday's low: 49.2° Last Year: 71° and 33° Normal High: 74° Normal Low: 47° Records: 93° in 1916 and 30° in 1980
.90" of rain was measured on this date in 1922
The Cookeville NOAA Weather Radio site is undergoing unscheduled maintenance to correct an antenna problem. We hope that this repair will take only a few days. Alternatively...listeners may be able to use the site at Spencer Tennessee on frequency 1 6 2 point 4 5 0 megahertz
SUPER NICE:
I hope you like dry days with plenty of sunshine and clear skies overnight as our run of cool nights and warm days continue throughout the 7-day forecast period!
Tonight's (Tuesday) low will be 48° by sunrise with Wednesday afternoon temps topping out at 80° under brilliant sunshine.
***DID YOU KNOW PUMPKINS ARE IN SHORT SUPPLY NATIONALLY?*** I have the story over at Examiner...click here for much more.
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE AHEAD:
Ditto that forecast for Thursday and beyond - here are our expected highs.
Thursday: 82°
Friday: 79°
Saturday: 77°
Sunday: 79°
Columbus Day: 77°
Tuesday: 76°
Lows will mainly be right around 50° each evening.
October is, typically, our driest month of the year, so this type of weather is not a surprise.
Frost Advisory Statement as of 2:13 PM CDT on October 01, 2011
...Frost advisory in effect from 2 am to 8 am CDT Sunday...
The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a frost advisory...which is in effect from 2 am to 8 am CDT Sunday. Temperatures early Sunday morning are expected to drop into the mid 30's across much of the Cumberland Plateau.
As a result, areas of frost are expected to develop.
Precautionary/preparedness actions
... A frost advisory means that frost is likely. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
