Gorgeous Sunday; But Near Zero Temps Returning

We're waking to temps in the upper 30's this morning at 9:00 am after an early morning low of 18°. Expect a mostly sunny sky with a high of 52° along with gusty south southwesterly winds from 15-25 mph. After that it is all downhill through at least Wednesday.

**CAUTION: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT**

RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT:
Tonight, a round of rain and snow develops as winds will turn to the northwest. We'll be right on the line for rain/snow so it is possible we'll awaken to no snow on Monday morning, but temperatures will be falling all day on Monday. We'll be down around 22° by 5 pm. As far as snow goes, it should all wrap up on Monday morning. Expect a blustery day, so dress appropriately.

BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT:
Monday night with be another brutally cold night with strong winds and extremely cold temperatures. Lows will bottom around 5° with a 15-25 mph wind causing wind chill readings as low as -10°.

UPPER TEENS TUESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS:
Tuesday will be very cold with partly sunny skies. We'll struggle to get out of the teens with a low a low on Tuesday night of 4°. Wednesday temperatures moderate a bit to 28° but we'll be back into the teens on Wednesday night. Even warmer on Thursday with highs in the lower 40's.

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Gorgeous Monday, But......

Get out and enjoy this unseasonably warm weather today (Monday) across the Cookeville area. We'll be in the mid 50's this afternoon under plenty of sunshine. Winds will be fairly light making the day feel quite comfortable.

****SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT****

TUESDAY SNOW POSSIBLE:
Tonight, clouds increase and we'll drop into the lower 30's by morning. A very strong Arctic cold front will usher in cold temps and strong north northwesterly winds. I expect temperatures to fall most of the afternoon on Tuesday. We can't rule out a period of snow showers on Tuesday with possible accumulations. Expect lows by Wednesday morning to be in the single digits.

LONG PERIOD BELOW FREEZING:
As of now it appears we will be below freezing in Cookeville from 7 am on Tuesday all the way through Saturday at noon. You'll want to make sure your pipes are protected from freezing and your pets are either brought indoors or have adequate protection from the cold.

SECOND ROUND OF COLD:
A reinforcement shot of cold air arrives on Thursday with Friday morning's lows again in the single digits.

THE WEEKEND AHEAD:
As of now, the upcoming weekend is expected to be above freezing with high temps around 40° both days. This is well below normal of 47° for our daytime average high and 26° for our average nighttime low.

DID YOU KNOW:
Our average coldest week of the year is typically the third week of January?
January's temps are running about 3° BELOW normal for the high and 6° BELOW normal for the low?

APPS OF THE DAY:
I have two weather apps today that I'd like to see you try.

WEATHER UNDERGROUND:
for Android
for iOS

PWS MONITOR:
Only available for iOS devices for now


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BIG WEATHER NEWS: Lots of Rain Between Now and Weekend

Not only are we looking at a significant rain event, but also may a possible winter weather event this coming weekend. As usual, the forecast could change concerning winter weather but confidence is very high for a significant amount of rain.

First a 7-day projection on rainfall. Note the location of the 6.6" x on the map.

Several links to pass on to you tonight:

A closer look at the heavy rain possible

Potential for flooding rains

This is an excellent time to review Flood Safety and please make a plan if you live or work in an area which is prone to possible flooding.

Special Weather Statement

In summary, expect a major weather event with rain starting on Thursday including possible thunderstorms. The rain will continue into Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night with a possible changeover to all winter precipitation on Friday night. A cold rain is possible on Saturday. 

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Possible Snow and Special Weather Statement for Tuesday Night

We are stuck in a cold pattern across the mid-south including the middle Tennessee area. There is a Special Weather Statement (see below) for Tuesday night for possible accumulating snow and I expect we will also see a wind advisory issued at some point.

Sunday's high of 32° was 25° BELOW NORMAL in Cookeville.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
Expect another cold night with temps dropping to around 22° after midnight but then gradually rise with increasing clouds. Monday will see the clouds continue to increase with a high of 44°. Calm wind to start but becoming southerly around 5 mph.

HERE IS WHERE IT BECOMES COMPLICATED:
A 50/50 chance of rain and sleet on Monday night.
Little or no snow accumulation expected with a low of 33°.

We'll see this mix continue on Tuesday morning but turn to all rain during the mid-morning hours with a high of 43°.

TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCES:
On Tuesday night, rain turns to a rain/snow mix in the evening and then to all snow after midnight. The low is expected to be around 27° with gusty north winds from 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow is 50% and some accumulation is possible in higher elevations.

For Wednesday, a chance of snow in the morning and a high of 37° in the afternoon, but it'll be bitterly raw with winds running to 35 mph in gusts. Cold Wednesday night with a low of 21° by Thanksgiving morning.

Expect sunshine and 40° on Thanksgiving Day.

Special Weather Statement

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Special Weather Statement

This statement is from the Nashville Weather Forecast Office for the National Weather Service.

...A Strong Cold Front Will Usher In Cold Temperatures And A Chance For A Little Snow On Tuesday...
A Strong Cold Front Will Push Through Middle Tennessee Early Tuesday Morning...Bringing Blustery Conditions...Light Snow At Higher Elevations...And An Arctic Air Mass That Will Plunge Temperatures Into The 20s.
Winds Across Much Of Middle Tennessee Will Increase To 15 To 30
Mph Early On Tuesday And Continue Through The Afternoon As The Cold Front Moves Across The Mid State. Given These Winds And Cold Temperatures Behind The Front...Wind Chills Will Plunge Into The Upper 20s Even During The Day.
Also...Light Snow Is Possible Along The Highland Rim And Cumberland Plateau On Tuesday. Ground Temperatures Will Remain Above Freezing...And Even The Air Temperature Will Likely Hover Just Above Freezing During The Day. Thus Accumulation On Roads And Pavement Is Not Likely To Occur.
Finally...Strong High Pressure Over The Upper Midwest Will Build Into Middle Tennessee Behind The Cold Front...Spreading A Frigid Arctic Air Mass Across The Region. Temperatures Tuesday Night And Wednesday Night Will Drop Well Into The 20s.

Muggy Saturday with Storms Possible This Afternoon

Lines of showers and possibly a thunderstorm are firing across our area at 10:55 am.

We are stuck in a very moist pattern. August is already wetter than normal with more rain falling in the first 10 days than would in an entire month. Almost all of it came on Thursday.

**SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT**

Fantastic Radar from WunderMap (in beta)

LIKE SOUTH FLORIDA AIR:
With a very tropical-like pattern in place, I expect that the brunt of the rainfall will be mainly in the northwest sections of middle TN around the Clarksville area while here in the Cookeville and surrounding areas we'll see mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs today will be in the middle 80's with dew point readings in the mid to upper 70's (extreme). Any dew point reading over 70° is considered uncomfortable when you combine it with air temperatures over 80°.

STUCK UNTIL TUESDAY:
The thought is we'll be stuck in this moist pattern through Tuesday when the front should push through causing dew points and temperatures to lower. We'll be quite comfortable, especially in the Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau region.

RAIN AMOUNTS:
We have discussed rain amounts extensively in the last two posts. I'll link to both below.
2013 Rainfall and Expected Weekend Forecast
July Was Much Cooler And Much Wetter Than Normal

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Window Rattling Winds

Expect a noisy overnight across the entire region as winds will gust to 45 mph.

We've already seen top gusts over 30 mph and anticipate this continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 60's and that will be good breeding grounds for potentially strong storms by daybreak on Wednesday.

*Wind Advisory*

Nashville westward into Arkansas are under a Tornado Watch overnight and at 10:30 pm, strong storms are affecting all of the counties on the Mississippi River. This line will slowly move across Tennessee during the overnight hours. I still believe we are in the SLIGHT risk category for severe storms in the Cookeville and surrounding areas BUT the locations west of Nashville are in the MODERATE risk area.

*Special Weather Statement*

Expected arrival time in the Cookeville area is pegged from the 6-9 am timeframe.

*LIVE NASHVILLE RADAR*

*LIVE WUNDERGROUND RADAR*

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Strong to Severe Weather Overnight Tonight

A very warm and windy day ahead for the Upper Cumberland region including Cookeville and surrounding areas. We'll see highs in the upper 60's with some locations nearing 70° today. Winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Overnight, showers and thunderstorms develop after midnight with the great potential (threat) for severe weather around daybreak. The low of just 59° with winds running 20 to 30 mph and gusting to 45 mph. Rain chances 100%.

Early morning thunderstorms on Wednesday with some possibly becoming severe. The high will be 62° early but will fall throughout the day. The winds will become westerly at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Then, we fall off the proverbial temperature cliff with lows on Wednesday night of 29° and a slight chance of snow mixing with leftover rain showers. Cold Thursday with a high of 41°. Snow chances Thursday night with a low 24° and only 35° on Friday.

*Wind Advisory*

*Special Weather Statement*

*Hazardous Weather Outlook*

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Cold Tuesday Rain Ahead

**Putnam County Schools will run on a 2 hour opening delay for Tuesday**

*COLD RAIN*
A difficult forecast in the upcoming 24 hour period for Tuesday. I expect a cold rain event for Tuesday, although some freezing rain conditions could occur especially during the morning and evening hours. Some forecasting models show a 1-2" event for our local area. This will affect the typical places where we see street flooding and minor creek flooding so be aware of that possibility.

*SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT*

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing early this morning after sunrise and top out around 40° for the high temperature with a high of just 35°. We'll only drop a few degrees tonight, but shouldn't be cold enough for a transition back to snow but again may see some freezing rain conditions develop.

ADVICE: Dress the kids warmly in the morning and prepare for a cold, steady rain

This is another situation where 1, 2, 3° makes a difference from a cold rain event to an interesting mixed precipitation event.

REST OF WEEK:
We'll see some moderation in temperatures and dry out as well. Highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's and lows in the 20's and 30's.

LONGER RANGE:
 The following week is looking SIGNIFICANTLY colder with highs only in the 30's and lows in the teens. With the right combination, we may see some winter precipitation but that is unlikely for now.

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Warming Up - Record Heat

Near Record Warmth Expected In Middle Tennessee Friday And
Saturday...

Warning Message:...Then a trend back to colder conditions...
Southerly winds will bring unseasonably warm weather to middle
Tennessee on Friday and Saturday...and produce near record highs.
The forecast high at Nashville on Friday is 72 degrees...which would
tie the old record set back in 1890. A high of 75 degrees is
expected at Nashville on Saturday...which would tie the old record
of 75...also set back in 1890. The all time record high at
Nashville for the month of January is 78 degrees...last set back
on January 24, 1972.
The forecast high at Crossville for Friday is 66...which would
break the old record of 64...set back in 1960. The high
temperature at Crossville on Saturday is expected to be 67...which
would break the old record of 64...also set in 1960. The all time
record high at Crossville for the month of January is 72...set on
January 30, 2002.
This warm spell will be short lived...and is expected to be
followed by a general cooling trend over the next few weeks ...with
some very cold Canadian air possibly arriving by late next week or
shortly thereafter. Temperatures over the next few weeks could
very well tumble some 30 to 40 degrees...or even more...following
this nice warm interlude. So...don't put away the heavy Coats.
They'll probably come in handy again soon.


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Drizzle, Fog, Rain, Then Snow

What a Christmas forecast!

Let's dive right in tonight. For the rest of Christmas Eve we'll have some light drizzle and patchy dense fog late with a low of 38° by morning.

*DENSE FOG ADVISORY*

Christmas Day calls from a slight chance for rain after lunch under a cloudy sky and a high of 49°. Winds will be fairly light from the east northeast up to 10 mph. Christmas Night will see our shower and thunderstorm chances increase with a low of 45°. The rain will be heavy at times and rain chances are 100%.

*SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT*

For Wednesday, rain showers before lunch, then a rain/snow mix after lunch. The high will be near 47° early but falling during the day. South winds 10 to 15 mph turning west northwest in the afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Rain/snow chances 70%.

Wednesday Night - A 30% chance of snow with a low of 29°.
Total accumulations to 1/2".

Cold Thursday with a high of just 42°.

Further out, a rain/snow chance Saturday with snow on Saturday night.
Cold Sunday.

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Possible Freezing Fog Overnight

Be careful!

Looking like a possible black ice scenario by sunrise.

...PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... 
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS 
EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS EVENING. 
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE

...PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED 
TO FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM 
TULLAHOMA TO CELINA. 

THIS FREEZING FOG MAY RESULT IN BLACK ICE AND SLICK SPOTS FORMING 
ON ROADWAYS ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. 

IN ADDITION...

VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER 
OF A MILE WHERE FOG IS THE MOST DENSE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE 
CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE 
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OVERNIGHT.

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Warm Through Friday Then BIG Drop Off

An interesting forecast period coming up.

**Special Weather Statement**

Expect temperatures to warm near 80 degrees by the end of this week but we're staring at a big drop in temps over the weekend with rainy conditions. Highs on Sunday may only reach the upper 50's. Once skies clear out on Sunday night, we could be staring at frost on late Sunday night into Monday as lows will dip near freezing.

This will certainly be the coldest weather yet of the season and may prompt possible watches/warnings.

48-hour Forecast:
Tonight - Patchy fog by sunrise - 53
Tomorrow - Fog early, then sunny - 79
Thursday night - Clear - 54
Friday - Sunshine - 78

Weekend Forecast:
Friday night - rain late - 54
Saturday - rain - 65
Saturday night - rain - 43
Sunday - slight chance rain - 57
Sunday night - patchy frost - 38

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Big Warm Up Followed By Cold Snap

Special Statement
Expires 6:00 PM CDT on October 02, 2012 Statement as of 4:01 PM CDT on October 2, 2012

... Summer like temperatures late this week to be followed by a big chill... ...

Widespread frost possible early next week.

.. After clouds clear late tonight and Wednesday morning... you can expect southerly winds to bring a good warm up for the Wednesday through Friday period. Daytime highs will push into the 70s on Wednesday... then soar into the lower 80s in many areas on Thursday and Friday.

However... our weather pattern takes a turn toward much colder conditions over the weekend and early next week... as a large Canadian high pressure system works its way southward across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

We first start to see the impacts of the chilly air on Saturday... as winds turn northerly... clouds and scattered showers roll in... and Saturday high temperatures struggle to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s over most parts of middle Tennessee. Lows then drop into the 40s late Saturday night and early Sunday and only top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday afternoon.

The cold air will really start to get our attention early next week... especially Monday morning... as the center of high pressure moves across middle Tennessee. Right now... it looks like lows in the middle 30s will be common... and some spots may even be flirting with the freezing mark. Such temperatures... along with clear skies and calm wind... could lead to widespread frost formation.

Even though agriculturalists should be vigilant and expect a possible killing frost, it is still too early to tell exactly how cold temperatures will get during the first part of next week.

Heating Up Again

A very hot forecast across the Cookeville area for your Tuesday. Expect highs to top out around 95° with heat index readings near 100° later this afternoon. There is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm today during the afternoon hours but that chance is only 20%.

ADVISORIES FOR MIDDLE TN:
There is a Heat Advisory for areas west of Nashville
There is a Special Weather Statement for much of middle TN west of the Highland Rim.

EARLY MORNING HEAT:
We started this morning out at 72.8° but temperatures are already rising quickly. At 7 am, we're up to 77.5° and will be around 80° at 8 am.

*Latest Local Forecast*

REST OF WEEK FORECAST:
Thunderstorms stick with us each day with the best chances coming late Thursday night and on Friday. Highs will be in the middle 90's through Thursday and around 90° on Friday through the weekend.

Cookeville's Daily Almanac
July 24, 2012
Yesterday's high: 91.1° 
This morning's low: 72.8°
Normal: 87/66
Records: 102° in 1934 and 57° in 2008
Last year: 89/73

Rainfall 
0.00" at my station
July total: 4.24"
2012 total: 26.18"
1.98" of rain fell on this date in 1983


DID YOU KNOW?
Average high for this month thus far has been 91.3°, which is 4° above normal but is 3° below the record July that occurred in 1980. Quite an interesting fact since the first 7 days of July averaged 100°.

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Expected Rainfall Amounts Through Friday

Much of middle TN will receive significant rainfall through Friday as several impulses of energy move northeast through our state. The most rainfall will occur in western sections of middle TN and lighter amounts toward the Plateau. Local flash flooding may occur in heavier storms, but widespread flooding is not expected due to the dry conditions.

*Special Weather Statement*

*Latest Local Forecast*

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June 29 Record Heat By The Numbers

As I stated this morning, all time records fell all over the state of Tennessee on Friday as high temperatures were as high as 109°. Here in Cookeville, we tied our all-time heat record with an official reading of 105°, which was set back in 1930

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...


SITE HIGH JUNE 29 PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
CLARKSVILLE 108 106/2007
CHEATHAM DAM 108 105/1980,1983
SHELBYVILLE 108 107/1952
PULASKI 106 105/1980
FRANKLIN 108 108/1930
COLUMBIA 109 109/1952
SMITHVILLE 105 104/1980
KINGSTON SPRINGS 109 108/2007
JAMESTOWN 103 100/2007
CENTERVILLE 105 103/1980
DOVER 108 110/1901
SPARTA 108 104/1980
OLD HICKORY 106 105/2007
COOKEVILLE 105 105/1930
MONTEREY 103 100/1952


OTHER HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT BREAKING THE RECORD.
DICKSON 106 110/1930
LIVINGSTON 106 108/1980


HIGH TEMPERATURE AT SITES WITHOUT RECORDS.
WARTRACE 102
BRENTWOOD 107
CENTER HILL DAM 108
WATERTOWN 109
MONTGOMERY BELL 102
LOBELVILLE 107
MANCHESTER 105
TENNESSEE RIDGE 108
WHITE HOUSE 104
ROCK ISLAND 107
BIRDSONG MARINA 105
CAMDEN 104
CRAB ORCHARD 100
BYRDSTOWN 100
COALMONT 100
HOHENWALD 104
MOUSETAIL LNDG 101
FAIRVIEW 107

Link to records set for Middle Tennessee
At least 18 cities set all-time heat records

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Incredible Heat Ahead

We're poised to be back in the 90's today across the Upper Cumberland region after a one day reprieve. Yesterday's high was just 84° breaking an 8-day streak of 90°+ highs. This morning's low was a very comfy 54.9° at 5:42 am.

WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS:

*Special Weather Statement*


With highs returning to around 90° today it will be the most comfortable day as extreme heat will build across the area beginning on Thursday. I expect our highs to be just under 100° on Thursday, but TOP 100° on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday should be shade under the 100° mark. 

THURSDAY'S HIGHS:

We'll push records later this week.

Cookeville high temperature records for those days are:
Thursday - 102 in 1936
Friday - 99 in 1936
Saturday - 95 in 1933

I cannot emphasize heat safety enough. Please consult my post on Tuesday evening concerning heat safety tips as well as the Heat: A Major Killer page from the NWS.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Weather News Story of the Day:
The large, out-of-control fire is our story of the day from Colorado Springs. More than 32,000 people have been evacuated as the fire roared toward the gorgeous mountain town that is the home to the Air Force Academy and Dr. James Dobson's organization among others. Pictures from Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs

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Blazing Hot Sunday

We're in for another hot day across the Highlands region of Tennessee. The heat has prompted another special weather statement for today. Remember your heat safety tips.....I'd rather no one become a victim of this early season heatwave.

We missed out on a record yesterday in Cookeville. Officially the high was 91°. (record was 93° from 1916) We'll be close to another record today as we expect highs to rang from 92-94° and the record is 94°, which last occurred in 1941.

No rain is expected for Sunday, however, there will be a chance (albeit, slight) for thunderstorms on Memorial Day across the area.

Here is something to look forward to in the forecast. Next weekend will be as much as 20° COOLER than this weekend.

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Hot Memorial Day Weekend

Plenty of sunshine and hot weather are the headlines for the Memorial Day weekend across much of middle Tennessee. Please take the necessary precautions so that you aren't a sunburn victim or, even worse, a victim of the heat.

We are already sitting at 78° just before 8 am in Cookeville. Yesterday's high was 91°. Typical high this time of year is 80°. We last hit 90° on May 2.

Saturday's forecast is for a hot, sunny day across the area. Expect mid 90's to the west and south of Cookeville while we'll be in the lower 90's this afternoon. I expect to issue the same forecast for Sunday with sunny, hot conditions and highs in the lower 90's. We'll see an isolated chance for storms on Monday and extend into the work week.

*Special Weather Statement*

*Latest Local Forecast*

Are you needing something fun to do today?

Head on out to the Nameless General Store today. Also, Granville is having their annual homecoming/Heritage Days. Both are wonderful areas with great people and fun things to do.

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