Sunshine and Hot For Monday

Expect mostly sunny skies with calm winds today and a high of 90°. It'll mark the 4th day in a row that we've topped 88°. Normal high this date is 86°. Tonight, skies become mostly cloudy with a low of 66°. An approaching front will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms with a high of 88° on Tuesday.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Isaac's path continues to confound the experts. The storm is now expected to move onto shore in Louisiana and move just west of New Orleans. As most of you know, it is the right side of the hurricanes that typically see the most damage. The system of levees will be tested in a major way for the first time since Katrina.

As far as Isaac affecting Tennessee, we believe the center of the storm will move into Arkansas. Since Isaac is such a large storm, it is possible to see heavy rainfall especially over west Tennessee.

Cookeville's Daily Almanac
August 27, 2012
Yesterday's high: 90.8° *first time at 90° in 16 days*
This morning's low: 63.2°
Normal: 86/62
Records: 100° in 1936 and 49° in 1922
Last year: 88/59

Rainfall 
0.00" at my station
August total: 5.64"
2012 total: 31.94"
2.84" of rain fell on this date in 1992

August continues to be a below average month in terms of temperatures but an above average month in terms of precipitation. Current temps are 2.3° below average and rainfall is about 10% ahead of an average August.

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Sunday's Forecast Including Impact Zone for Isaac

Expect a fantastic Sunday across much of Tennessee. We'll get to our forecast later in this post. Let's talk about Tropical Storm Isaac first.

A CONTINUED WESTWARD JOG:
We discussed, in last night's post, the possibility of the Tropical Storm Isaac's track scooting further to the west and this is exactly what has happened. The latest update (at 7 am) from the National Hurricane Center shows the impact point moving westward from the Destin area toward the Alabama/Mississippi border. This jog westward brings the city of New Orleans into play. Again, we're still a couple days out (late Tuesday and early Wednesday) so things could change.

ISAAC AFFECTING KEY WEST:
Isaac will continue to strengthen as it moves through the Gulf. The main impact point this evening will be Key West. The airport at Key West has been closed. Through the night Isaac will continue to grow and will become a category 1 hurricane. The beaches on the western gulf coast of Florida will take a beating especially since they are located on Isaac's east side. 50-60 mph wind gusts are being reported this morning as far away as West Palm Beach and Pompano Beach in rain bands on the Atlantic side of Florida.

Further out, the concern is for the Florida panhandle as landfall is expected between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning early.

TENNESSEE IMPACT FROM ISAAC:

In Tennessee we expect to see tropical like conditions by late Thursday and early Friday. The main threat continues to move westward so the heaviest rains (at this point) for late next week appear to be around Nashville and locations west toward Jackson, TN. Again all of this could change as Isaac marches towards Tennessee.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville area forecast discussion:
Expect sunny skies with a high near 90° today. Light winds

Partly Cloudy overnight and comfortable with a low of 65°

Monday will be similar to Sunday with a high of 90°

We'll add a chance of thunderstorms to the forecast beginning Monday night and extend that all the way through the rest of the week.

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10 PM Isaac Update

We are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac and with the 10 pm (CDT) advisory, it is important to note several things going on with this system.

1) The storm is trying to reorganize after passing over land.
2) It appears the storm will continue to jog westward of the original line. This will move the storm further from the southwest Florida gulf coast.
3) Because the forecasting models are increasingly showing this movement west, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that landfall may end up nearer Mobile or even the Alabama/MS border.

A couple of forecast maps below.

The next question is "How will Isaac affect Tennessee?"

The short answer is this storm is expected to pull northward once on shore. Originally, the thoughts were the east TN mountains would see the most rainfall, however those thoughts are beginning to change. The cone of probability is more likely (right now) to be between Jackson, TN to the west and Crossville, TN to the east. Now it is entirely possible this will be adjusted as the storm moves closer and with 5 days to go, anything is possible.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville's Sunday forecast is for a sunny day with highs near 90°. The morning start around 7 am should be around 65° with an overnight low around 62°.

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