Sunshine and Hot For Monday

Expect mostly sunny skies with calm winds today and a high of 90°. It'll mark the 4th day in a row that we've topped 88°. Normal high this date is 86°. Tonight, skies become mostly cloudy with a low of 66°. An approaching front will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms with a high of 88° on Tuesday.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Isaac's path continues to confound the experts. The storm is now expected to move onto shore in Louisiana and move just west of New Orleans. As most of you know, it is the right side of the hurricanes that typically see the most damage. The system of levees will be tested in a major way for the first time since Katrina.

As far as Isaac affecting Tennessee, we believe the center of the storm will move into Arkansas. Since Isaac is such a large storm, it is possible to see heavy rainfall especially over west Tennessee.

Cookeville's Daily Almanac
August 27, 2012
Yesterday's high: 90.8° *first time at 90° in 16 days*
This morning's low: 63.2°
Normal: 86/62
Records: 100° in 1936 and 49° in 1922
Last year: 88/59

Rainfall 
0.00" at my station
August total: 5.64"
2012 total: 31.94"
2.84" of rain fell on this date in 1992

August continues to be a below average month in terms of temperatures but an above average month in terms of precipitation. Current temps are 2.3° below average and rainfall is about 10% ahead of an average August.

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

Sunday's Forecast Including Impact Zone for Isaac

Expect a fantastic Sunday across much of Tennessee. We'll get to our forecast later in this post. Let's talk about Tropical Storm Isaac first.

A CONTINUED WESTWARD JOG:
We discussed, in last night's post, the possibility of the Tropical Storm Isaac's track scooting further to the west and this is exactly what has happened. The latest update (at 7 am) from the National Hurricane Center shows the impact point moving westward from the Destin area toward the Alabama/Mississippi border. This jog westward brings the city of New Orleans into play. Again, we're still a couple days out (late Tuesday and early Wednesday) so things could change.

ISAAC AFFECTING KEY WEST:
Isaac will continue to strengthen as it moves through the Gulf. The main impact point this evening will be Key West. The airport at Key West has been closed. Through the night Isaac will continue to grow and will become a category 1 hurricane. The beaches on the western gulf coast of Florida will take a beating especially since they are located on Isaac's east side. 50-60 mph wind gusts are being reported this morning as far away as West Palm Beach and Pompano Beach in rain bands on the Atlantic side of Florida.

Further out, the concern is for the Florida panhandle as landfall is expected between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning early.

TENNESSEE IMPACT FROM ISAAC:

In Tennessee we expect to see tropical like conditions by late Thursday and early Friday. The main threat continues to move westward so the heaviest rains (at this point) for late next week appear to be around Nashville and locations west toward Jackson, TN. Again all of this could change as Isaac marches towards Tennessee.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville area forecast discussion:
Expect sunny skies with a high near 90° today. Light winds

Partly Cloudy overnight and comfortable with a low of 65°

Monday will be similar to Sunday with a high of 90°

We'll add a chance of thunderstorms to the forecast beginning Monday night and extend that all the way through the rest of the week.

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
CookevilleWeatherGuy.com official page on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

10 PM Isaac Update

We are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac and with the 10 pm (CDT) advisory, it is important to note several things going on with this system.

1) The storm is trying to reorganize after passing over land.
2) It appears the storm will continue to jog westward of the original line. This will move the storm further from the southwest Florida gulf coast.
3) Because the forecasting models are increasingly showing this movement west, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that landfall may end up nearer Mobile or even the Alabama/MS border.

A couple of forecast maps below.

The next question is "How will Isaac affect Tennessee?"

The short answer is this storm is expected to pull northward once on shore. Originally, the thoughts were the east TN mountains would see the most rainfall, however those thoughts are beginning to change. The cone of probability is more likely (right now) to be between Jackson, TN to the west and Crossville, TN to the east. Now it is entirely possible this will be adjusted as the storm moves closer and with 5 days to go, anything is possible.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville's Sunday forecast is for a sunny day with highs near 90°. The morning start around 7 am should be around 65° with an overnight low around 62°.

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

Nice Saturday

A great looking day across the Cookeville area for your Saturday with daytime highs reaching the upper 80's to near 90°. There is a very slight (10%) chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. Winds will be from the south southwest at around 5 mph but will become calm late today.

Overnight, expect a partly cloudy sky with a low of 65°. For Sunday, sunshine and a high of 89°. Thunderstorm chances ramp up for Monday and Tuesday. We think the area may be affected by Isaac at some point during the mid-week. That, however, is up in the air at this point. Weather Underground and Weather.com both have full coverage on Isaac.

*Wunderground Isaac Page*

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville's Daily Almanac
August 25, 2012
Yesterday's high: 89.9° *first time at 90° in 16 days*
This morning's low: 65.6°
Normal: 87/63
Records: 100° in 1943 and 49° in 1917
Last year: 94/65

Rainfall 
0.00" at my station
August total: 5.64"
2012 total: 31.94"
1.77" of rain fell on this date in 1958

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

Midnight Update

1:00 AM UPDATE:

Isaac remains a tropical storm with 70 mph winds

and gusts to 85 mph 

*minimum hurricane strength is 74 mph*

Movement is NW @ 12 mph

Barometric pressure is 990mb or 29.22 inches 

Isaac storm page at Wunderground

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Suddenly, Isaac 'could' (and I mean could) impact middle Tennessee. Please understand we're at least a good 5-days out and this track could change significantly.

IF THE TRACK REMAINS THE SAME:
If you look real close, you'll notice a period where Isaac may be well out into the Gulf of Mexico as it rides up the coast of SW Florida. This, combined with extremely warm waters, may cause a significant amount of strengthening before Isaac strikes the northwest Florida coast between Pensacola, Destin, Ft. Walton Beach, and Panama City Beach.

Anyone who has relatives in these areas, I would encourage them to make plans now to at least be ready for a significant weather event. If they will not evacuate, encourage them to have a well-stocked storm kit.

I will continue to bring updates on Isaac as they are necessary.

TN WEATHER:
Weather for middle TN is going to be warm and pretty at least through the weekend! The forecast is below.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

Sunshine and Warm Through Sunday

We wake up once again to temperatures in the 50's across middle Tennessee. Here in Cookeville, the 7 am temp is 55.9° and the low this morning was 54.4°, the 4th straight morning with lows in the 50's.

SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON:
We'll hit 85° later this afternoon under a sunny sky. Ditto that forecast for tomorrow through the weekend as we stay in the dry pattern with warm days and cool evenings.

Tropical Storm Isaac is churning in the Atlantic and expected to reach hurricane status in the next 24-36 hours. The path is expected to take Isaac toward Cuba and then make a turn toward Florida. At this point, we expect the Atlantic coast of south Florida to be under the gun by around 2 am on Monday. This, however, is a long ways out and the path could easily change.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville's Daily Almanac
August 22, 2012
Yesterday's high: 82.4° 
This morning's low: 54.4°
Normal: 87/63
Records: 100° in 2007 and 47° in 1956
Last year: 87/58

Rainfall 
0.00" at my station
August total: 5.64"
2012 total: 31.94"
1.20" of rain fell on this date in 1966

Month-to-date highs for August are averaging 84.3°, which is 3° below normal and some 11° below the record heat from 2007. Low temps are running about 1° below normal but 6° above the coolest year ever, which was in 2004. Rainfall is nearly double the normal and most of us are thrilled with the extra rainfall. Did you know that nearly 11" had fallen thus far in August of 2010?

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

Tropical Storm Alberto

Not much fun for those who may have gone to Hilton Head, SC or Myrtle Beach, SC for their graduation trip. Tropical Storm Alberto is churning in the Atlantic Ocean just off the coast of Georgia right now. Dangerous surf conditions are possible along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph. Movement is slow at just 6 mph to the WSW. Alberto will turn and head northwest soon right along the coast beginning on Monday.

The storm will track very close to the North Carolina outer banks on Tuesday morning. Folks in that area should be aware of strong surf conditions.

Persons from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of Alberto.

Hurricane season is here a bit early and goes all the way through November.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Interact with me on social media:
Weather Guy on Facebook
Weather Guy on Twitter
Cookeville Weather Alerts on Twitter

Wind and Rain

QUITE A CHANGE:

Big rains from what was left of Tropical Storm Lee have dumped incredible amounts across Tennessee. Some locations in the eastern part of the state have seen more than 12". Here in Cookeville, I measured 5.35" with my CoCoRaHS 4" manual gauge since the rain began. 

COOL:

Expect showers today with a NNE wind from around 10 to 15 mph. There will be higher gusts this morning. Today's high temperature will be around 64°...what a huge change from the 90's last week! Tonight, scattered showers and we being to dry out, low 57°. 

OUTLOOK: 

Rest of week forecast, shows a slight chance for showers each days with highs from the middle 60's to middle 70's by week's end. 

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville's Daily Almanac

Our morning low: 57.6°

Yesterday's high: 68.6°

Yesterday's low: 59.0°

Last Year: 90° and 52°

Normal High: 85°

Normal Low: 60°

Records: 104° in 1925 and 41° in 1924

Rainfall Report

24-hour precip total: 4.00" 

(from Davis Vantage Vue - midnight to midnight)

September monthly precip total: 5.35" 

2011 annual precip total: 53.63"

.97" of rain fell on this date in 1968

Wettest Spot in Tennessee: 

12.22" in Bradley County (Cleveland), TN

Wettest Spot in America: same! 

Very Heavy Rains for Labor Day

MOST IN 2 MONTHS:
As of 7:30 this morning, we have received 2.42" of rain since midnight. Add that to the 1.05" received on Sunday and the rain totals 3.42" thus far. These rains are from what is left of Tropical Storm Lee.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE:
I do expect us to receive more rain the rest of your Labor Day holiday into tonight and on Tuesday. Rainfall totals will range from 5 to 8 inches across the Cookeville, TN region with locally higher amounts.

COOLER TEMPS AHEAD.
The rest of the week is expected to feature chances for rain and highs only in the 70's....big change!

A Very Wet Forecast

DRIVE CAREFUL ALERT --- Flooding rains poossi

Rains, heavy at times, will continue to stream northward as Tropical Storm Lee is affecting our weather.

Current Nashville NEXRAD Radar Map : Weather Underground

Expect a very forecast all the way through Tuesday with highs only in the 70's. 

Special Weather Statement - http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/3853531